Trump Promises ‘Largest Tax Refund Season Of All Time.’ What You Can Expect
As the 2026 tax season nears, President Donald Trump is promising significantly larger tax refunds, citing changes enacted for the 2025 tax year under his so-called “big beautiful bill.”
“Next spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time,” Trump said Wednesday during a prime-time address from the White House.
However, experts caution that refund amounts will vary based on how much tax individuals paid in 2025 and which provisions of the new law apply to their personal situations.
Tax refunds generally occur when taxpayers overpay throughout the year through paycheck withholdings or estimated payments. Conversely, owing money at tax time means too little was paid upfront.
Trump’s remarks come as his approval ratings on inflation and the cost of living continue to slide. According to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted in early December, 66% disapproved of Trump’s handling of inflation and living costs, up from 62% in October.
With many Americans feeling the strain of higher prices during the holidays, here’s what to expect when filing taxes in 2026.
Many Taxpayers Likely To See Larger Refunds
Passed in July, Trump’s legislation included several tax changes retroactive to 2025, such as:
- A larger standard deduction
- An expanded child tax credit
- A higher cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction
- A $6,000 tax break for seniors
- New deductions for auto loan interest, tip income, and overtime pay
“When filing 2025 tax returns in 2026, many will see larger refunds than in recent years,” wrote Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy.
Together, these seven provisions reduced individual income taxes by an estimated $144 billion in 2025, according to the Tax Foundation. However, the IRS did not update withholding tables to reflect the changes.
“As a result, instead of receiving the tax cuts gradually through higher take-home pay, most taxpayers will receive the benefit all at once when they file their returns,” York noted.
Who Stands To Benefit Most
The size of a taxpayer’s 2026 refund will depend on which provisions apply to them. While the larger standard deduction, enhanced child tax credit, and senior tax break affect broad groups, other deductions—such as those for tips or overtime—apply to narrower segments of filers.
“For many taxpayers, the legislation largely extends tax cuts first enacted in 2017,” said Alex Muresianu, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation. “The basic structure of the tax code will look very similar to what people have been used to for the past eight years.”
An Oct. 31 note from Piper Sandler also projected “an exceptionally large refund season,” with middle- and upper-income taxpayers expected to see the biggest gains.
During the 2025 filing season, the average individual tax refund stood at $3,052 as of Oct. 17, slightly higher than the $3,004 average reported in 2024, according to IRS data.
Click the yellow arrow box to view CNBC‘s news video ‘What Parents Need To Know About ‘Trump Accounts‘.
Source: CNBC
